Future European Migration Scenarios in 2030: Plausible, Probable, and Relevant?

An expert workshop, called “Future European Migration Scenarios in 2030: Plausible, Probable, and Relevant?”, organized by IOM’s GMDAC and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), took place in Brussels, Belgium, on 9 October 2019. The workshop brought together 23 experts from various academic disciplines with extensive experience in migration scenarios and forecasting.

The aim of the meeting was to seek input on the results of a systematic literature review of migration scenarios, and to finalize the design of a survey on future migration scenarios to Europe in 2030. Eduardo Acostamadiedo (Data Analyst, IOM’s GMDAC), and Jasper Tjaden (Data and Impact Analytics Coordinator, IOM’s GMDAC), presented the survey during the workshop.

Discussions during the workshop highlighted the level of disagreement regarding the probability of different migration scenarios being realized, including the scale of different types of migration flows. After the workshop, the expert survey was launched in November, and the report is expected to be finalized by the end of the year.

In partnership with NIDI, GMDAC is leading the work package on “migration scenarios” in the context of the European Union (EU)-funded, Horizon 2020 Project “CROSS-MIGRATION – Current European and Cross-National Comparative Research and Research Actions on Migration”.

CROSS-MIGRATION seeks to contribute to a better understanding of current and emerging migration by synthesizing and accumulating existing research on key migration issues. The GMDAC-led component on “migration scenarios” will provide a literature review of migration scenarios, a report on future immigration scenarios to the EU in 2030 and an interactive tool that will visualize scenarios.