The Future of Migration to Europe: A systematic review of the literature on migration scenarios and forecasts

Effective migration management requires some degree of anticipation of the magnitude and nature of future flows. In response to these needs, two types of approaches have emerged in the literature in recent years: (a) migration forecasts, which provide quantitative estimates of future migration, and (b) migration scenarios, which develop different storylines and thereby emphasize flexibility of thought on future migration. This report presents the results of a systematic literature review of migration forecasts and scenarios. It presents key definitions, methods and common lessons from the available evidence in this field. Over 200 relevant publications were screened to retrieve not only the results of the studies, but also information about the context in which the studies were produced (i.e. research metadata). This comprehensive overview will be of interest to both scientists and practitioners who wish to navigate this growing field.

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